Oman Political Snapshot - Tenuous Times Walking a Perilous Tightrope
(International Politics - Risk & Threat)
With what is now happening in the wider region, where the Saudis and the Iranians are heavily involved in proxy (and not so proxy) conflicts, Oman is conspicuous by its attempt to represent itself as a mediator or honest broker in trying to prevent direct confrontation even direct military action taking place between Iran and Saudi Arabia. To this end, there are some reports that the Omanis are being used as a diplomatic back channel by Riyadh and Tehran to ensure that direct confrontation between the two is avoided.
This is a difficult balancing act. It is well known that Oman is and always has been the only Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that has high-level diplomatic relations with the Iranians. This is not surprising giving the close geographical proximity they share especially the strategic Straits of Hormuz and recent projected bilateral energy initiatives between the two countries.
Since coming to power in 1970, Sultan Qaboos has tried to pursue a foreign policy of moderation and has achieved a laudable measure of success in following this path in such a volatile and unpredicatable region. However it is his continued policy of maintaining friendly relations with the Iranians that are proving problematic. These he has maintained despite strong opposition from his fellow GCC members (principally the Saudis) and also by resisting consistently strong US diplomatic pressure to adopt a sterner stance to the Iranians.
Oman, which has an Ibadi majority has tried to adopt a neutral stance and remain distant from the escalation of the sectarian Shiite and Sunni Muslim conflict currently raging in the region. This strategy has up to the present worked but for how much longer?
If observers think that the current offensive in Iraq to defeat ISIS succeeds followed by some form of military success in Syria will be the end of conflict in the region, they are mistaken. What happens when the shooting stops? Iran and Saudi Arabia have expended too much treasure and bloodshed to calmly walk away. I believe the Sunni/Shiite sectarian divide will widen further and remain a potential flashpoint bubbling away on the front burner. Inter- regional strife may well escalate when you take into account the ongoing conflict in next door Yemen and Kurdish aspirations for a separate Kurdish state, something the Turks, and other regional players may not be prepared to accept.
So where in the future will that leave Oman? Qaboos will have some tough choices to make. Will he be forced by circumstances to ally himself fully with his fellow GCC members and abandon his unilateral support for Iran (or vice versa) or will he try and maintain the status quo? It is a difficult and tenuous balancing act. Whatever decision he does make and he may not have the luxury of time to choose, his current neutral stance could be overtaken by events beyond his control.
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