Iraq and The Mosul Dam - A Continuing, Ticking Time Bomb
(International Politics - Risk & Threat)
With the defeat of ISIS in the region and the recapture of Mosul by the Iraqi Army and their Shia militia allies, it is worth highlighting one important but little discussed area of major concern that has been simmering for a number of years and that is the Mosul Dam.
The Mosul Dam (Formerly the Saddam Dam) when is was first made operational in 1985 was controversial even before it was built. It was viewed by many as another Saddam “vanity” project that was more about his cult of personality rather than an essential infrastructure project. When the $1.5 billion contract was awarded to a German-Italian consortium to build the dam, their engineers were adamant that the proposed siting of the dam was impossible. The geological foundation was unstable and because of the water tables, any structure built there would be subject to continual erosion. Their concerns were personally overruled by Saddam, and the project went ahead.
Since then over the years, the engineers proved they were correct in voicing their concerns. Severe erosion and cracking takes place on a regular basis and the “sticking plaster” maintenance work carried out infrequently by the Iraqis, have not solved the problem. The US Corps of Engineers who carried out a survey of the dam in 2007 more or less said this dam was a disaster waiting to happen.
If the dam were to breach, it would be a catastrophe. Indeed in January 2016, U.S General Sean MacFarland warned that the dam might undergo a "catastrophic collapse". He added "What we do know is this - if this dam were in the United States, we would have drained the lake behind it" (1).
The torrent and volume of water would not only eradicate Mosul, only 25 miles away from the dam but even cause severe and lasting damage as far south as Baghdad some 200 miles away. Loss of life would be in the tens of thousands with a US report going as high as 500,000 lives lost. The crucial time is always Spring when there are rising water levels and the Tigris is swollen by rain and melting snow.
There are currently no contingency plans put in place by the current Iraqi Government to address a possible breach. Given the flat topography of the region and the country, there is virtually no high ground deemed safe for population evacuation. My contact tells me (sarcastically) that there are occasional radio and TV broadcasts advising citizens to seek “high shelter” in the event of a breach.
One should also bear in mind that if the worst were to happen, we would see a major refugee exodus out of the country adding to the strain and chaos that we are currently seeing as a result of the Syria conflict.
The brief occupation of the dam by ISIS in August 2014 was a major concern. According to my local contact, heavy USAF air strikes and artillery shelling by joint Iraqi/Peshmerga forces did do blast damage to the infrastructure although not as severe as was first thought but nonetheless still worrying. He goes on to say that after the recapture of the dam as a matter of urgency, Iraqi workmen under Iranian Shia supervision were drafted in to carry out major grouting and repair work.
Although it was feared that ISIS before they withdrew would destroy the dam, this did not happen for a number of reasons. They had just captured Mosul and the bulk of their forces were in that area. Any breach of the dam would have effectively destroyed these forces. Another reason would have been that the areas that would have been most affected were Sunni lands and population centers and any destruction and loss of life would erode their support in these heartlands. Finally, my contact told me that a captured ISIS prisoner had told his Peshmerga captors that destruction was actually considered despite the risks, but that “external forces” had advised them not to carry out this act, my contact did not elaborate on who he deduced these “external forces” were but one can hazard a fairly good guess.
Recently, it was announced that the Italian company Trevi Group had been awarded or agreed a contract to make extensive emergency repairs on the dam. There is no indication as to project cost but my contact believes it to be in the region of $250-350 million. Proposed security on the project would be provided by Italian troops although again this is not confirmed. There has been resistance to this last measure from the Shia dominated Ministry of Water Resources in Baghdad who have stated that it should be Iraqis who provide the security. By Iraqi one would presume either the Iraqi army or Shia militias (Baghdad have already turned down an offer from the Peshmerga to provide dam security).
However efficient and effective the Trevi emergency repairs are, given its location and its topographical and geological drawbacks, the fact remains that this dam will still remain a source of major worry and concern in the years to come.
Notes:
(1). The Mosul Dam: A Watery Time Bomb. The Most Dangerous Dam In The World. The Economist 13 February 2016
